27% increase in new housing launches in Q1 2018 over previous quarter reports ANAROCK

By ANAROCK Property Consultants

Unsold inventory decreased by 2% from 7.27 lakh units in Q4 2017 to 7.11 lakh units by Q1 2018

According to ANAROCK Property Consultants’ latest research, 2018 has started on a positive note with residential unit launches making a comeback and recording a 27% increase in Q1 2018 from the previous quarter across top 7 cities of India. With policy reforms and structural changes now in place, developers are intent on making up for the lost ground.In Q1 2018, sales across top 7 cities of India also rose by 12% compared to Q4 2017, indicating that serious homebuyers are back, attracted by the new environment of transparency, accountability and financial discipline.

“The series of policy reforms and structural changes have transformed the way Indian real estate business is conducted. This has been a definite blessing. The sector is by no means out of the woods yet, but we are now seeing some green shoots of recovery,” says Anuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Property Consultants. “The market has turned end-user friendly and 2018 is bringing new launches that match demand. The days of product mismatch are on their way out.”

Q1 2018 New Launch Tracker

• The top 7 cities recorded new unit launches of around 33,300 units in Q1 2018 as opposed to 26,300 units in Q4 2017.
• Key cities contributing to Q1 2018 new unit launches included MMR (Mumbai Metropolitan Region), Bengaluru and Kolkata, altogether accounting for 66% of addition.
• 6,500 units were launched in Kolkata – a massive rise of over 300%from Q4 2017. A large affordable housing project of around 3,500 units was a key contributor to the rise in new units hitting the market in the quarter.
• Bengaluru added 6,800 units in Q1 2018, a massive quarterly increase of 127%. This city has always adapted rapidly to changing market dynamics and is positioned particularly well for future growth.
• While MMR was a key contributor to new launches in Q1 2018, the city’s new launches recorded a drop of 25% from the previous quarter with 8,600 units. The previously intensely investor-driven city is now finally aligning itself to the changing market conditions with 87% unit additions in the sub-INR 1.5 crore price bracket.
• Chennai added 2,100 units in Q1 2018 compared to only 1,000 units in Q4 2017 – a significant rise of 110%. With political stability and elimination of input material issues, the city seems to be back in action.
• NCR’s contribution was 14% with 4,500 units, an 18% increase from the previous quarter. This region is also reorienting itself to actual housing demand, with 94% unit additions in the sub-INR 1.5 croreprice bracket.
• Pune’s contribution was 7% with 2,200 units. Developers in this historically stable market are carefully calibrating the supply to avoid creating a serious demand-supply mismatch

With more clarity on the back of faster clearances and approvals, new launches surged in Q1 2018. While there is an undeniable need to focus on executions to avoid penalization under RERA, timely new launches are also critical so that the secured approvals do not lapse. In terms of launches, 2018 has certainly commenced on a strong note. If demand picks up faster, we may witness a consummate increase in new launches as well.

“In terms of sales during Q1 2018, almost all the cities recorded a rise over the previous quarter – except Chennai, which recorded a 12% decrease,” says Anuj Puri. “The overall quarterly increase of 12% in sales is a good indicator of reviving demand.”

Improving Sales Figures

Around 49,200 units were sold in Q1 2018 with NCR, MMR, Bengaluru and Pune together accounting for 80% of the sales.

• Kolkata’s sales increased by 42% – from 2,400 units in Q4 2017 to 3,400 units in Q1 2018
• Sales in Bengaluru and Pune increased by 15% over the previous quarter and were recorded at 11,500 units and 6,800 units, respectively.
• MMR sales rose by 12% – from 11,000 units in Q4 2017 to 12,300 units in Q1 2018
• NCR’s sales increased by 11% – from 8,200 units in Q4 2017 to 9,100 units in Q1 2018. While the quarterly rise was restricted to double digits, the region recorded a year-on-year rise of 25% in new launches, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions.
• Sales in Hyderabad remained almost stagnant over the previous quarter, with 3,800 units sold in Q1 2018.
• Chennai was the only city that recorded a dip in sales at 12% – from 2,600 units in Q4 2017 to 2,300 units in Q1 2018.

The increase in launches in the top 7 cities during Q1 2018 when compared to the previous quarter resulted in overall unsold inventory decreasing by a meagre 2% – from 7.27 lakh units in Q4 2017 to 7.11 lakh units by Q1 2018. A notable aspect of new launches in Q1 2018 was that the share of Tier Idevelopers increased from 35% in the previous quarter to 40% in the current quarter. Evidently, the expected RERA Effect in terms of boosting organized players is making itself felt.

Price Movements

Residential property prices across the top 7 cities remained largely range-bound in Q1 2018 when compared to the previous quarter. The primary reason was the significant unsold stock to the backdrop of limited improvement in demand. Affordable and mid-segment housing dominated, with 74% of unit launches (24,600 units) coming in with price tags under INR 80 lakh. Supply is now being very visibly geared towards end-users, and this is a major shift from Indian real estate’s previous investor/speculator-driven orientation.

To Conclude…

The seeds of reforms sown in 2017 showed some results in Q1 2018. Although it would be premature to announce a full-fledged recovery mode, the quarterly progress is encouraging. Only time will tell if 2018 as a whole will be a comeback year for the Indian real estate sector. However, if developers remain laser-focused, add only relevant supply and ensure 100% RERA compliance, the massive latent housing demand in the country will certainly help catalyze a formal recovery.